Day 1 (Tuesday) Supreme Novices Hurdle, 5yo’s plus (2-miles & 110 yards)

This is always an eagerly anticipated race, and not just because it opens the Cheltenham Festival.  It is always hotly contested and usually chock-full with some of the best novice hurdlers (and future potential top-class NH performers) in training. The list of previous winners reads like a “who’s who” of the jumps scene including (since 2002) Like A Butterfly, Brave Inca, Captain Cee Bee, Go Native, Menorah and Al Ferof.

Statistic viewpoint
Including the 2014 winner Vautour:-
 -
 - 5yo’s & 6yo’s have now won 19 of the last 22 renewals (the others being a 4yo, 7yo & 8yo).
 - As in 2012, last year the 1st-3 had all the benefit of at least 3 previous hurdle runs. This had previously been a race in which horses having run in just one or two hurdles races have fared well but, as experienced hurdlers have in recent years dominated this race, it looks like this aspect that is changing.
 - Of the last 17 winners 15 won LTO and, in 2013, the 1st-3 home had won their previous race.
 - Of the last 14 winners, 12 had run their previous race no more that 42-days previous (ie. on or after the 29th January 2014).

Personal notes

Regular readers will know that due to the fierce competitive nature of the race, this is not one that I usually get heavily involved in. I use this race to get a feel for the going (as it is likely that I will be having substantial wagers on the next 3 races on the card).

What tempts me to have a wager is a horse which has won LTO with that win coming on or after the 29th January (ie: in the past 6-weeks). I would avoid any 7yo’s and older. It seems to be that novice hurdlers are being given much more exposure and those with more than 3 hurdle runs have started to dominate this race.

Year  Winner                     LTO Previous race  Age
2014  Vautour                     1st  30-days            5yo
2013  Champagne Fever     1st  31-days            5yo
2012  Cinders And Ashes   1st   52-days
2011  Al Ferof                    1st   31-days
2010  Menorah                   2nd  24-days
2009  Go Native                 1st   16-days
2008  Captain Cee Bee      1st   115-days
2007  Ebaziyan                  1st   40-days
2006  Noland                     1st   30-days
2005  Arcalis                     3rd  31-days
2004  Brave Inca               1st   37-days
2003  Back In Front          1st   20-days
2002  Like A Butterfly     1st   30-days